Surviving the pandemic "Titanic"

To the Editor:

A recent freedom rally in Kincardine, resulting discussions in the form of letters to the editor, and reports of local infections, have caught my attention recently.

After publicly warning of this pandemic six weeks ahead of the World Health Organization (WHO), I have now poured thousands of personal hours over the past 21 months into researching this virus and this pandemic as I worked alongside others trying to save lives around the world. I understand the situation we face extremely well and I thought I'd take the time to weigh in on the discussion occurring in the area.

In the past, I have compared this pandemic to being on the “Titanic” after it hit the iceberg. Like it or not, we are all passengers aboard a sinking ship and more of us are likely to stay safe if we take the time to calmly understand the situation we currently face and then work together to help each other to safety. 

Just like the “Titanic,” there were those who thought the ship was unsinkable, ignored the repeated danger warnings and never left the ship, while others quickly understood the danger they were in and set off early in partially-filled lifeboats but left others behind.  

More than 100 years later, the COVID-19 pandemic is eerily comparable to that same marine disaster except on a far grander scale. On one side, you have those who took various different measures to protect themselves and their families in the face of a disaster, while others have completely ignored the warnings, declared the ship is not sinking and are still eating, drinking and demanding the entertainment and music play on. 

Others may still be a bit confused as to exactly what is occurring, question just how serious a situation we are in, and what they should do, and that is also completely understandable. There are also some people from less-fortunate countries that we've completely ignored and locked below decks; thereby, sealing their fate. Ignoring their safety is also contributing heavily to how fast our ship is going down.

Our vaccines could be compared to life jackets. Having them is one possible way to increase your chances but even wearing a life jacket aboard the “Titanic” would still not have guaranteed your survival. You would still need to do more. Our vaccines, in that way, are very similar. At this point in time, they still appear to reduce severe illness, hospitalizations and mortality, but just like the life jacket, they are not a 100-per-cent guarantee of survival. 

I specifically say "at this point in time" because things are still evolving and as time goes on, we are seeing some real problems occurring. Other countries, such as Singapore with an over 84-per-cent vaccination rate, are almost completely out of ICU (Intensive Care Unit) beds as of Oct. 25. They were already planning to set up more beds and, possibly, start building field hospitals. Recently, over 50 per cent of those being hospitalized there, were vaccinated. Singapore, which is similar to us, was using mainly Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Israel, which is one of the most vaccinated countries in the world, has also run into similar problems.

CURRENT VACCINES ARE DIFFERENT

Many of our current vaccines are mRNA-based and are, therefore, different than anything you may have taken in the past. In social media comments across the world and even in these recent letters to the editor, I see some people getting upset and telling others to just take them without seeming to consider what the other person thinks, feels or knows on the subject. Some do not understand there are differences in these vaccines and sometimes falsely argue that because the vaccines or flu shots they have had in the past were safe, that these are too, and then blindly demand others take them. 

Well, to help put it in perspective, just within my own small circle of family and friends, I know of adverse reactions that have occurred from three different vaccine brands. Some of these events (which were more than just minor) I know were never reported and as such, do not show up in the numbers on the adverse reaction database. It is estimated that possibly as little as one-to-10 per cent of adverse vaccine reactions were ever reported in the United States (U.S.).

Many also do not understand that these vaccines, unlike others in the past, are also non-sterilizing and therefore, leave a fully-vaccinated individual capable of carrying the same viral load as an unvaccinated person, who may be asymptomatic (not showing symptoms), and both groups, unfortunately, can still transmit to others.

There are some studies that say transmission may be somewhat less in vaccinated individuals while others I've read seem to indicate transmission is equal. These are some of the issues we know now and there may be more that we don’t know. Heart inflammation in children is just one recent issue in a seemingly still expanding list.

Our vaccines were designed on the original Wuhan variant while we are now dealing with the newer and much stronger Delta variant which now sits quite a few rungs up the viral mutation ladder. Newer variants, such as Mu and others, are also now in low circulation. Mu is in 49 states in the U.S. and now here in Ontario. Other mutations are sitting just across the border and in different countries around the world. Each can present new challenges and dangers, such as increased transmissibility, additional symptoms, vaccine avoidance, drug resistance or, possibly, even higher mortality. 

With Delta, we are dealing with some of those issues right now. The newer ones are expected to pose a greater risk to our vaccines and, maybe, even the drugs we are currently using as they overtake Delta in the future. There is a common belief that we can simply vaccinate our way out of this pandemic but I and others are no longer 100-per-cent sure we can or at least with what we are currently using to try to save our fellow passengers.

By now, some of you may be thinking I am just anti-vaccination, and I would quickly counter that by saying I supported the use of vaccines, pushed for it, in fact, and still believe vaccines may be beneficial for many, but this issue, unfortunately, is simply not as cut-and-dried as some would believe.

As time goes on, I and others have more concerns at how effective the vaccines will be and wonder what other surprises may be in store. The vaccine is still a life jacket but I worry it may be one that has become ill-fitting. An ill-fitting life jacket may be better than nothing at all but I think you shouldn't solely rely on it to protect you if you have decided to put it on. I do hold out some hope for the new Novavax vaccine but time will tell whether that vaccine is better or has similar problems too.

VITAMINS AND SUPPLEMENTS

Now, for some better news. Over the past 21 months, our research has also found that taking Vitamin D3, C, A, B1, Selenium, Melatonin, Quercetin and Zinc, are just some of the vitamins and supplements that may help to reduce risks of severe illness. There are numerous studies, evidence and articles to back up these suggestions.

Quercetin is known to block viral replication. Vitamin D3 deficiency often leads to increased rates of hospitalizations. Many of these are now part of normal patient treatment regimes in the U.S. If you have concerns about taking any of these, consult your health-care provider first before taking them. I'm not suggesting these are meant to replace vaccinations but they may be useful as an additional layer of protection you can add to increase their protection if for some reason you can't take vaccines or have decided against vaccination for now. They could even help those who are vaccinated too.

It concerns me to see fully- or partially-vaccinated individuals falsely believing that they are somehow now invincible and taking far more risks than they should be. I realize it can be hard for many as their age and outgoing personality types make them want to be with others, travel all over the countryside and around the world even in the midst of a pandemic. 

Others are simply lonely and want to be around people which is understandable in these very difficult times. You are free to do as you wish but in doing so, I ask you to step back for a moment and consider if your actions may be putting others at risk. Could you stand to live with yourself knowing you may cause someone you know or love to fall ill and possibly lose their life?

Some people falsely believe that it is only the elderly at risk. I am a father of four young sons. In our case, three of the four are now at various levels of risk with one of those at very high risk. Our initial concern at the start of this pandemic was for just one child because we nearly lost him in the past, but over time, we've learned most of our children are now at various levels of risk. One son is just three years old, and the latest to need our protection. He is just another reason why I have dedicated so much time to trying to understand this virus and our pandemic. 

Across Canada and the world, there are so many more children just like them. In fact, it's been said more than 1.1-million people in Canada are immuno-compromised whether naturally or from medications they are currently taking to treat illnesses or they have other common medical issues that put them at increased risk. In the U.S., the number of immuno-compromised is estimated at nearly 10-million. Vaccination may not even help many of these individuals. The loss of Colin Powell lately (who was fully-vaccinated) was just one well-known example of this problem occurring.

It is incorrect to assume that this is an illness that is 99.97-per-cent or 99.7-per-cent survivable as some say. The actual figures show, to date, we have lost more than 28,800 Canadians and that is about two per cent of those confirmed infected. This is still very much in line with the expected loss of 2.2 per cent that I calculated we'd run in about mid-January of 2020, shortly before I started publicly warning of a pandemic. 

A loss of two per cent does not appear to be a lot until you start to do the math across a country of 37.5-million people. Then you discover we have the potential to lose 750,000 people at that rate. Canada has done fairly well, so far. At some rates we were running in past waves, that total could potentially go much higher. If you are one who wonders why we have lockdowns and are upset because you are asked to follow numerous public-health measures, this is just one reason why but it hasn't been well explained.

IMMUNITY CAN WANE OVER TIME

Immunity whether from vaccination or even natural infection can also wane over time and reinfections can be, and are, occurring. Natural infection may provide months and up to 12 years of protection; whereas, vaccination may be much, much less, but the risks associated with falling ill are numerous too and some, such as blindness, multiple organ failure, heart attacks and brain fog, are very serious. I never calculated this into the original equation or even stronger mutations that could quickly overwhelm our hospitals or blow through our vaccines and medications while causing collateral damage to others, such as the car accident victim who may not have access to ICU care when needed.

Recently, it was said that Ontario had only had about four per cent of people infected so far. Just four per cent infected in this province but with a Canada-wide loss, to date, of 28,841. Other provinces have been much luckier than Ontario. Can you see the problem now? Antibody testing can also help our government determine this number just in case you wonder if the four per cent possibly came from the smoke still wafting out the smokestacks of our sinking ship.

One of the main issues being discussed is vaccine passports. When they were originally proposed, I publicly stated that they would help save lives while, unfortunately, making the lives of others difficult. I also said that outbreaks would continue because there are actually more issues at play. Passports can be somewhat effective because, at the moment, they do help reduce the number of people gathering in one particular location, reducing some potential spread. 

I am more in favour of them if they can be used just like the QR system New Zealand uses for outbreak tracing. In that case, an infected individual, once identified, can quickly provide public health with a traceability of so many others who may have become exposed to the virus. This is because it gives a time when that infected individual was at a certain location and who entered, left or was working at that particular time and may have become exposed. Those individuals can be isolated. 

Our current passport system excludes unvaccinated individuals from entering multiple locations. Workplaces are pushing employees to get vaccinated or be terminated. Do they all understand all these issues though? Is this acceptable given the problems we face? Does it infringe on personal rights? That is where some really serious debates arise. 

As I've pointed out, vaccinated individuals are a transmission risk too though some evidence suggests that may be somewhat lower than unvaccinated individuals, while others would disagree. If one doesn't even understand all the problems, it is much harder to make an educated decision. Unfortunately, most have been left in the dark and set adrift.

I know that Kincardine and the surrounding communities have been very, very lucky, so far, and I do hope it continues that way but everyone should be aware that despite the success you've had, things can change very quickly. This Delta variant is a game-changer. Other stronger mutations will surely follow. I fully expect we have a long way to go yet. 

The last thing I'd want to see is for families I know and those I don't in the area, to become the next tragic story I read. As I said, I understand our pandemic extremely well and it is actually far more complex, far more widespread and far more problematic than it appears to most of you at the moment.

I don't need to upset anyone more than I may have already done, so I'll leave it at that for now. All I would ask is for people on both sides of this debate to try to be more understanding, to be more accepting of the differences of opinion in others, and know it's okay to question authority but please also try to work together with public health and governments to ensure that your respective communities, others across this country and those less fortunate across our planet, can all make it safely off this massive sinking ship.

Please take care, and take comfort in knowing there are some quietly doing what they can to make a real difference.

David Hafner
Founder of MOWSA (Make Our World Safe Again)
Mitchell
Formerly of Kincardine